Why Predicting The Fed Rate Doesn't Matter

On The Drift with Adam Mesh, veteran trader and tastylive co-founder Tom Sosnoff delivered a blunt reality check for anyone trying to trade around the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, July 29, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Three regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented in favor of raising rates by a quarter point. With markets split on whether the next move is a hike, a cut, or another extended pause, Sosnoff's message on The Drift was to stop trying to predict what the Fed will do at all. In his words, if the Fed raises rates, no one actually knows whether bonds go higher or lower in response. Nobody knows. Instead of guessing at the Fed's next move, Sosnoff argues traders should express their actual view on rates using simple options structures. If you believe rates are topping out and bonds have bottomed, sell puts on your rate-linked instrument. If you believe rates are still going higher and bonds have further to fall, take a short delta position that profits from lower prices. That, Sosnoff says, is all there is to it. No macro forecasting, no fighting with Fed governors, no trying to out-guess Kevin Warsh just picking a direction and structuring the trade to match. Content and clip from The Drift with Adam Mesh featuring Tom Sosnoff. #TomSosnoff #Fed #stocks 🌐 Find more market-moving insights at https://www.benzinga.com — your one-stop destination for the latest financial news, data, and expert analysis to stay ahead of the markets. 🖥️ Want the same tools the pros use—without the $10K Bloomberg terminal? Benzinga Edge gives you real-time portfolio alerts, weekly stock picks, and pro-grade research in one command center. 👉 https://bit.ly/4unSKiB ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 📲 Follow us on socials @benzinga 🔔 Subscribe To The Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Benzinga ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ⚠️ Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, and there are no guaranteed returns. All information is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always do your own research and speak with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Only invest what you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.